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Jordan Hughes's avatar

My comments will be inadequate, necessarily. Your curiosity and interests lead me to share a few of the questions I have found to be salient to themes in your post and I hope they might be useful for you also. First, I think the hypothesis within your conditional statement concluding section 3 is true and I generally agree with the sentence beginning section 4. However, I think the central unresolved problem(s) are probably substantially different than the factors you refer to with the apt term "threshold-setting." In my view, although model evaluations should be oriented as you propose, and the three dimensions you specify as particularly requiring measurement should be included among the important goals of any adequate testing regime, I have the impression that you presuppose an assumption that, in my estimation, is unwarranted. I think that adequate oversight and the required testing must prioritize reasonable calculations of risk probabilities, based on roles given to AI processes within dynamical systems, in relation to the limits that can predictably be imposed on the predictable possible consequences inherent in the overall system dynamics. I know that's a mouthful. Here's an example. The famous "human-in-the-loop" constraint required of AI-powered weapons, such as drones or targeting mechanisms incorporated into human-controlled aircraft, tanks, ships, etc., necessarily constrains the dynamics of the (otherwise autonomous) control systems in ways that intrinsically limit the utility of the intelligence. The *evaluations* provided by the system cannot be so far beyond the overall capabilities of the human cognition "in the loop" that the human cannot assess the quality of the intelligence. But that limit defeats much of the purpose of building the intelligence into the system in the first place, and will always be in tension with the reasons for building weaponry more lethal than the enemy's. At some point in the development of autonomous systems, any human supposedly in the loop becomes irrelevant, because the only source of information the human can rely on for making the "kill-don't kill" decision is the intelligence embedded in the killing machine itself. To reiterate, that's an example of a much broader set of issues that must be incorporated into the basic formulations of risk-assessment as applied to AI in general.

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